5904 寶雅(櫃)

Suggestion:
Buy and Hold till $35

Key watch out:
【公告】寶雅公司股東會後修正九十七年度年報
1. Change of major stock holder's share.
2. Ex-right and Ex-dividend date on 7/17

Value Side
Sales growth rate 0708: 19%
0809(est.*):2%
Sales growth rate 0708 is reasonable and frankly meet my understanding. The main reason should be expanding branches aggressively in 0708. However, 0809 is comparatively uncertain due to:
Negative factors:
1. 2nd global financial crisis is brewing.
2. CCI (consumer confidence index) drops 0.67 point on June' 09
Positive factors:
1. (5904) still have expanding plan.
2. Despite all uncertainties, TW stock market surged in P3M which brings wealth effect.

Account Receivable Mar' 09 IYA: 45
Which is a good sign, AR growth rate far behind sales growth rate means sales growth in POYA is generously healthy.

Cash per share:$4.475

Dividends per share: $1.8 (given long-term growth rate is 6%) can bring in PV $30

Stock price after ex- date(dividend $1.8 & right $1.8): $26.00

*: From 98/06/04 Apple Daily